In accordance with the Census Bureau’s City and Town Population Totals: 2020-2021, Seattle is now the 18th largest metropolis in america, with a inhabitants of 733,919, as of July 1, 2021. It sits above Denver (inhabitants 711,463) and under San Francisco (inhabitants 815,201). Seattle has skilled beautiful development in a brief time frame. From 2010 to 2020, Seattle’s inhabitants elevated by 21.1%, from 608,660 to 737,015, earlier than dropping barely by 0.4% from 2020 to 2021. A part of the explanation for Seattle’s spectacular development from 2010 to 2020 was as a result of growth of town’s tech trade, turning into a kind of “Silicon Valley of the Pacific Northwest.”
Not surprisingly, given this important development, the Seattle housing market skilled a dramatic rise in house costs and demand. Primarily based on information sourced from Redfin
Learn on to seek out out key traits creating within the Seattle housing market.
Seattle Housing Market: Overview
Evaluating the information from Redfin, the Seattle metro space housing market is exhibiting combined alerts of continued power in addition to weakening exercise within the cities that comprise the Seattle metro space. Within the metropolis of Seattle correct, house costs have managed to maintain their year-over-year improve at the same time as different housing markets, such because the Bay Space housing market, have displayed outright declines. The median sale value within the metropolis of Seattle housing market elevated by 7.6% year-over-year: From $785,000 in October 2021, as much as $845,000 in October 2022.
Nevertheless, there’s an attention-grabbing divide among the many core cities of the Seattle metro space. We analyzed 56 core cities of the Seattle metro space, and 28 of them have witnessed year-over-year declines in house costs, whereas one other 28 have seen year-over-year will increase in house costs. Town within the Seattle space that skilled the largest year-over-year development in house costs was Enumclaw, which lies to the southeast of Seattle correct. The median sale value in Enumclaw grew from $547,000 in October 2021 to $828,000 in October 2022, for a rise of 51.4% in only one yr.
On the opposite finish of the spectrum, town that skilled the largest year-over-year decline in house costs was Lake Forest Park, which is simply north of Seattle: From $1,009,400 in October 2021, all the way down to $588,500 in October 2022, for an annual lower of 41.7%. Town of Normandy Park, barely south of Seattle, noticed its median sale value drop by 37%: From $1,032,500 in October 2021, all the way down to $650,000 in October 2022.
Beneath is a desk detailing the cities within the Seattle housing market space which have skilled declines of their median sale value from October 2021 to October 2022:
Although this desk paints a seemingly dismal image of the Seattle housing market, there are the opposite 28 cities which have seen their house costs improve year-over-year from 2021 to 2022. Beneath is a desk detailing the cities within the Seattle housing market space which have skilled will increase of their median sale value from October 2021 to October 2022:
Thus, total image of the Seattle housing market may be very combined certainly. Many cities within the better Seattle space have confirmed remarkably resilient to the disruptions brought on by rising mortgage charges in different American housing markets. And the cities that witnessed year-over-year development of their house costs weren’t merely reasonably priced housing markets that bought costlier. Issaquah, for instance, already had a excessive median sale value of $871,000 in October 2021, earlier than it climbed by almost 19%, to achieve greater than $1 million in October 2022.
Seattle Housing Market: Stock and Days on Market
When there’s a slowdown in housing market exercise, usually there happens a rise in obtainable for-sale stock. Whereas house costs have elevated in 28 cities within the better Seattle housing market space, solely two cities skilled a year-over-year lower in obtainable stock: The cities of Gold Bar and Sultan. In all places else, housing stock has elevated from 2021 to 2022, and in some cities by quite a bit. The desk under particulars the change in obtainable for-sale stock within the better Seattle housing market:
After most cities within the better Seattle housing market space witnessed dramatic falls in obtainable stock from October 2020 to October 2021, they’ve proceeded to see big share will increase from October 2021 to October 2022. And it’s essential to notice that an annual improve of 100% implies that obtainable stock doubled.
One other essential think about housing market exercise is the size of time a house on the market spends in the marketplace earlier than being purchased up. Within the Seattle metro space as a complete, the median variety of days on market of a house on the market rose from 7 days in October 2021 to 21 days in October 22, equal to an annual improve of roughly 200%. However many different cities within the better Seattle housing market space have skilled far better will increase of their median days on market:
Associated to housing stock is a market’s variety of months of provide of houses. This metric tells you the way lengthy it will take provide to be purchased up if no new houses got here in the marketplace. Primarily based on the Redfin information, the months of provide of houses within the Seattle metro space rose from 0.5 months in October 2021 to 2 months in October 2022, which is a year-over-year improve of 300%. However many core cities throughout the nice Seattle metro space have skilled far better will increase of their months of provide:
The Backside Line: Seattle Housing Market Forecast 2023
Primarily based on the Seattle housing market information, the trajectory that many cities within the Seattle metro space are following appears to level to an growing slowdown in homebuying exercise. Although the Fed would possibly loosen up on its aggressive fee hikes, main mortgage charges to fall a bit, there’s the looming specter of a recession coming in 2023. America’s first non-pandemic induced recession for the reason that Nice Recession of 2007-2009 would most certainly trigger a serious cooling off within the Seattle housing market. Affordability has already been pushed to the brink by the rise in mortgage charges and an financial downturn, with its consequent rise in unemployment, would most likely gradual housing market exercise much more than it already has.
All that being stated, the Seattle housing market has confirmed extra resilient than another notable housing markets within the nation. An outright, devastating housing crash appears unlikely, however a soft-to-medium touchdown appears possible.